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Posts Tagged ‘pleasanton real estate’

How do you feel about the numbers?

Wednesday, April 4th, 2012
No “Psychological” Bottom Yet in Housing Prices

Jann Swanson, Mortgage News Daily, Mar 22 2012, link

The rate of decline in housing prices has slowed recently according to the RPX Composite Index released today by RadarLogic, but the bottom for prices may still be a ways off.  The RPX Composite price, which tracks 25 major metropolitan areas, declined to $169.75 per square foot in January, the lowest price for the Composite since July 2002.

The year-over-year rate of decline has been increasing since mid-2010 and reached the most rapid growth in several years in December 2011.  The rate of decline then began to slow.  On December 19 the rate was 7 percent and on January 19 it was 5.42 percent.

The decline from December to January was 2.2 percent, the lowest since 2007.  RadarLogic discounted the seasonality of the decrease by pointing out the declines in January for the years 2008 to 2010 averaged 3.6 percent.

RadarLogic said that while the slowing rate of decline is promising it is still too early to say that prices are nearing the bottom.  The company referenced a similar slowing in the rate of decline in 2009 only to see acceleration again in 2010.

The RPX transaction count for the 25 metropolitan areas increased 7.7 percent year-over-year to the highest January level since 2007.  The increase was driven by a 23.4 percent increase in non-distressed or “other” sales.  At the same time the composite price for these sales dropped 7.7 percent which the company suggestions may indicate that sellers are dropping their prices to move the properties.

Motivated sales, defined as sales at foreclosure auction and liquidation sales by lenders declined by 21.8 percent year over year and those prices also declined.

On a monthly basis counts of “other” sales declined 25.9 percent while motivated sales were down 15 percent over the same period resulting in motivated sales comprising a larger percentage of total sales; the percentage increased from 22.6 percent in the month ending on December 19 to 25.1 percent for the following month.  “This relative increase in motivated sales put downward pressure on the overall 25-MSA RPX Composite price, exacerbating its month-over-month decline.”

RPX says that the existing home sales figures released this week and continued signs of weakness in mortgage application numbers suggest that the country has yet to find the “psychological” bottom in the housing market.   ”Until buyers, of whom we suspect there are many, believe the imbalance of supply and demand is correcting, they will continue to push prices down by bidding below asking prices.  It would seem that home builders agree with this sentiment as starts and permits for single family homes are weak.  Most new builder activity appears to be in apartment structures.”

Some perspective on federal assistance programs…

Monday, April 2nd, 2012
Beginning the Housing Healing Process with HARP 2.0

Frank Ceizyk, Mortgage News Daily, March 20 2012, link

Dear Fellow Mortgage Industry Professionals,

I know that the industry is in a fit over what to do with the HARP 2.0 program, but I would submit to you, that the findings I received today for my customers on the new LP Relief Refinance Program are the exact reason why we should make sure we can close and fund these loans without further dawdling over reps and warrants and technical issues we’ve had more than enough time to work out by now.

For the sake of privacy, I will call these customers Mr. & Mrs. A.  In 2007, after three years of searching, and following the advice of financial advisers, they put 20% of hard earned money down, had plenty of cash reserves, and hoped for a reasonable return on their investment in their dream home assuming a 2-3% annual rate of appreciation that historically has been the norm.

Little did they know that by the time their house was built, values were topping out a 60% increase in just over 4 years in Pima County.  This fact that went unnoticed since we value residential real estate on a 90 day time period without looking at historical price valuations to even out spikes that don’t match up to economic fundamentals.

The entire housing industry was selling the economic fallacy that housing values never go down, and Mr. & Mrs. A. had no reason to assume that they were speculating on a very high priced house.  Even if they were, they felt an extra sense of security knowing they had put 20% down on the house.

Since the down turn starting in 2007, and after 5 years of trying to refinance their house, including 3 years I have been trying to find a way to help them, I have an LP Streamlined Accept, with an HVE value of $217,000 and an LTV of 127%.

Despite all of the downturns in housing and the economy, Mr. & Mrs. A. have maintained impeccable credit scores, a respectable amount of savings considering the four children they lovingly care for, and stand to save over $300/month from this refinance.

Imagine how far $3600/year will go with a family of 6!

I can only hope that we will deliver on the incredible promise this program has to help customers like the As by allowing them to complete this refinance using the Freddie Mac accepted HVE value–rather than subjecting them to the random slot machine pull that is the AMC appraisal system.

They have a deficit of $169,000 from the price they paid for their house at purchase to the HVE value I pulled today.  Allowing them to save $3600/yr seems like a small concession for the lending industry to make considering the losses they have taken since they purchased their house.

I have seen loan modifications given to borrowers who put 0% down payments on their homes during the same time period who are now paying 2% rates, most of whom were 90 days late on their payments at the time the modification was granted.

I think it is time we gave home owners like Mr. & Mrs. A. the opportunity to save money at current rates in the high 3s/low 4s since they have proven after 4 years their ability to repay despite the year after year loss of investment value in their home.

I hope that Mr. & Mrs. A. will be one the first success stories we share together for the HARP 2.0 Relief Refinance.

Perhaps we will be able to say “this is the day we started turning things around in housing by helping people who are severely underwater, but have shown the ability to repay their mortgage to, obtain payment relief”.

Pleasanton seminar on Reverse Mortgages – May 23!

Friday, March 30th, 2012

Seminars planned on reverse mortgages

ECHO Housing, a nonprofit housing counseling agency, will hold a free seminar at the Pleasanton Public Library in May on reverse mortgage opportunities.

A reverse mortgage is a loan against home equity that provides cash advances to a homeowner. No repayment is required until the end of the term, or when the home is sold.

ECHO representatives said that many of today’s reverse mortgages allow homeowners to reside in their homes for the rest of their lives, even if they outlive the value of their homes.

Cherisse Baptiste, an Alameda County reverse mortgage counselor, will conduct the seminar, which will be held at 1 p.m., Wednesday, May 23, in the library’s community meeting room at 400 Old Bernal Ave.

The seminar is free and will be open to the public.

For more information call Baptiste at 510-581-9380, ext. 19.

 

A REVERSE MORTGAGE IS:

…a form of equity release (or lifetime mortgage) available in the United States. It is a loan available to seniors aged 62 or older, under a Federal program administered by HUD. It enables eligible homeowners to access a portion of their equity. The homeowners can draw the mortgage principal in a lump sum, by receiving monthly payments over a specified term or over their (joint) lifetimes, as a revolving line of credit, or some combination thereof. The homeowners’ obligation to repay the loan is deferred until owner (or survivor of two) dies, the home is sold, they cease to live in the property, or they breach the provisions of the mortgage (such as failure to maintain the property in good repair, pay property taxes, and keep the property insured against fire, etc). The owner can be out of the home for up to 364 consecutive days (i.e., into aged care).[citation needed]

In a conventional mortgage the homeowner makes a monthly amortized payment to the lender; after each payment the equity increases by the amount of the principal included in the payment, and when the mortgage has been paid in full the property is released from the mortgage. In a reverse mortgage, the home owner is under no obligation to make payments, but is free to do so with no pre-payment penalties. The line of credit portion operates like a revolving credit line, so a payment in reduction of a line of credit, increases the available credit by the same amount. Interest that accrues is added to the mortgage balance.

Title to the property remains in the name of the homeowners, to be disposed of as they wish, encumbered only by the amount owing under the mortgage.

If a property has increased in value after a reverse mortgage is taken out, it is possible to acquire a second (or third) reverse mortgage over the increased equity in the home in some areas. However most lenders do not like to take a second or third lien position behind a reverse mortgage because its balance increases with time. It is rare to find reverse mortgages with subordinate liens behind them as a result. A reverse mortgage may be refinanced if enough equity is present in the home, and in some cases may qualify for a streamline refinance if the interest rate is reduced.

A reverse mortgage lien is often recorded at a higher dollar amount than the amount of money actually disbursed at the loan closing. This recorded lien is at times misunderstood by some borrowers as being the payoff amount of the mortgage. The recorded lien works in similar fashion to a home equity line of credit where the lien represents the maximum lending limit, but the payoff is calculated based on actual disbursements plus interest owing.

Transportation just got a little more high-tech in the Tri-Valley.

Wednesday, March 28th, 2012

High-speed rail boosters promise ‘blended’ transportation system
New emphasis represents a ‘rethinking of the whole high-speed-rail approach,’ rail authority now says

Gennady Sheyner, Pleasanton Weekly, March 16, 2012, link

View all photos (6)

A lower price tag, fewer tracks and a fresh commitment to fund rail improvements in north and south California are among the features that the California High-Speed Rail Authority plans to unveil in its revised business plan.

That’s what representatives of the rail authority told a state Senate committee Tuesday night at a public hearing in Mountain View.

The revised plan, which the rail authority’s board of directors plans to release later this month, will also emphasize what has become known as the “blended” approach for the rail system — a design that would have the new rail system share two tracks with Caltrain along the Peninsula corridor.

This design, which was proposed by State Sen. Joe Simitian (D-Palo Alto), U.S. Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Palo Alto) and Assemblyman Rich Gordon (D-Menlo Park) a year ago, has been the subject of much debate in recent months, with many city officials along the Peninsula urging the rail authority to commit to the two-track alternative.

At Tuesday’s packed hearing in the Mountain View Center for the Performing Arts, rail officials indicated that with the new business plan, they are preparing to do just that.

Dan Richard, chair of the rail authority’s board of directors, and Jim Hartnett, a board member, both said that the “blended” approach is central to the agency’s new vision for the project. The members made these comments at a meeting hosted by Simitian, who chairs a Senate budget committee on resources, environmental protection and transportation.

Last year, rail officials resisted the “blended approach,” suggesting that it would run counter to Proposition 1A, a $9.95 billion bond for the rail system that voters approved in 2008.

The agency’s latest environmental analysis for the major project sill refers to a four-track system, much to the consternation of officials in Palo Alto and elsewhere.

But Hartnett said Tuesday that the agency, in its revised plan, now embraces the idea of a “blended system” for both the northern and the southern sections of the San Francisco-to-Los Angeles system. Hartnett called the new emphasis on the “blended system” a “rethinking of the whole high-speed-rail approach.”

“The new direction for high-speed rail is a high-speed-rail system that is dependent on its success on a blended approach both in the north and in the south,” Hartnett said.

This new vision could have dramatic implications for Caltrain, which has also been adamant about scrapping the four-track design in favor of the less disruptive blended system. The new business plan, Hartnett said, would place greater emphasis on relying on existing infrastructure in what the rail authority is calling the “bookends” of the line (its northern and southern segments). Specifically, he said, it will lay out a plan for “early investment in the north and in the south that will have direct positive impact on the regional transit systems” and lay the foundation for high-speed rail.

For Caltrain, this early investment could mean getting the funding it needs for electrification — a project that the cash-strapped agency has been planning for more than a decade. The project, which the agency sees as key to raising its ridership numbers and achieving long-term financial stability, also includes positive train controls and a new stock of electric trains. It would cost more than $1 billion, money that the agency currently does not have.

The rail authority’s new vision for the rail system could change that. The authority is preparing a “memorandum of understanding” with the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTC) that would identify “early investment opportunities” that the authority can make in the Bay Area. Though the document is still in the works, Caltrain electrification is widely expected to top the list of the Bay Area’s transit priorities.

“This is an opportunity for Caltrain as much as it is an opportunity for high-speed rail,” Hartnett said, referring to the early investment. “We believe the plan will set out a reasonable way of doing that.”

But even as they talked about making early investment in the “bookends,” rail officials on Tuesday defended the authority’s decision to begin the line’s construction in the Central Valley.

This decision had prompted many critics of the $98.5 billion project to refer to the system as a “train from nowhere to nowhere.” Some, including the agency’s own peer review group, have challenged its earlier business plan for inadequate discussion of funding sources and for its vagueness in discussing plans to build the system beyond the initial segment.

Aside from the voter-approved bond and about $3 billion in federal money, the project has no other committed funding sources. The agency’s business plan anticipates private investment in the later stages of the project.

The challenge, Richard said, is to demonstrate that the first segment of the line would provide significant improvements even if the agency doesn’t get the funding it needs to build the entire system.

The revised business plan, he said, “will have a more rational basis for showing how the system develops over time so that each station that we’ll have in front us will have something that is useful — like Caltrain electrification, for example.”

Richard, who was recently appointed to the board of directors by Gov. Jerry Brown, defended the decision to start in the Central Valley. Starting the rail system in this region will allow the agency to test the new 225 mph trains, he said. On the Peninsula, the trains would reach speeds of up to 125 mph.

Richard also said the agency believes that the new system’s ridership will be sufficient to cover its operating costs.

The rail authority’s ridership and revenue numbers have been a subject of major criticism on the Peninsula and elsewhere. Uncertainties over these projections, along with the project’s escalating costs, were among the major factors that prompted the Palo Alto City Council to officially adopt a position last year calling for the project’s termination.

But Richard said that the numbers show that even in the line’s “initial operating segment” (the first constructed segment that would be capable of accommodating high-speed trains), ridership would be sufficient to pay for operations.

“We believe that the ultimate ridership projections will mean that there will be sufficient riders on the high-speed rail so that we will not be needing a public subsidy in order to operate,” Richard said.

Though Richard did not specify how much the rail system would cost under the “blended” approach, he said the number will come down from the prior estimate of $98.5 billion. He called the price tag (which was a major jump from the agency’s prior estimate of about $40 billion), a “sticker shock” for many people. It will be incumbent for the agency to show, in its new business plan, the ways in which the capital costs can be reduced.

“The key to it is the blend approach,” Richard said. “This is one of the things that will lock us into the course that I think will save us a lot of money.”

Though the rail authority’s new vision is more consistent with the views of many Peninsula officials, some said Tuesday that they remain skeptical about the latest plans.

Palo Alto Councilman Pat Burt, who chairs the Peninsula Cities Consortium (a coalition that also includes Atherton, Menlo Park, Belmont, Burlingame and Brisbane) said that when it comes to early investment opportunities on the Peninsula, the “devil will be in the details” of the agreement between the rail authority and the MTC. He noted that the MTC signaled that cities along the Peninsula would not have any direct participation in the process.

Burlingame Councilwoman Terry Nagel also said she is concerned about the MTC’s ability to adequately represent the Peninsula cities in the “eleventh hour.”

“I don’t think the majority of the cities are opposed to high-speed rail if it’s done right — and that’s a big if,” Nagel said. “It would require money that is well spent on the Peninsula.”

Pleasanton Realtors are on your side!

Monday, March 26th, 2012

Realtors urge Obama to keep mortgage interest deductions
‘We urge the president and Congress to do no harm,’ says head of national association

Jeb Bing, Pleasanton Weekly, March 15, 2012, link

The president of the National Association of Realtors said last week that the organization “strongly opposes” elements of President Obama’s budget proposal that would limit itemized deductions, including the mortgage interest deduction, for thousands of families.

“As the leading advocate for housing and homeownership, NAR believes that the mortgage interest deduction is vital to the stability of the American housing market and economy,” said Maurice (Moe) Veissi, a Realtor from Miami, Fla. “We urge the president and Congress to do no harm.”

Veissi said that while progress has been made in bringing stability to the housing market, the recovery has been slow. He added that the nation’s homeowners already pay 80% to 90% of U.S. federal income taxes.

“Raising taxes on them, now or in the future, could critically erode home values at all price levels,” he said. “This would destroy middle-class wealth accumulation and trillions of dollars in home values nationwide.”

“The mortgage interest deduction must not be targeted for change,” he added. “Any modifications to the deductibility of mortgage interest will harm housing and homeowners, and until housing markets have stabilized, there cannot be a robust economic recovery. Realtors are actively engaged to ensure that America’s 75 million home owners will continue to receive this important benefit.”

Veissi continued: “NAR also strongly opposes eliminating capital gains treatment for any carried interest of a real estate investment partnership. The loss of capital gains treatment for income from a carried interest could disrupt the conventional business model and places an unfair tax burden on general partners. Ultimately this would negatively impact commercial real estate investment.”

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